Numbers headache for ECN

The release of the latest population figures could be a blessing in disguise for the country’s electoral body as Namibians prepare to go to the polls later this year, analysts say.

Namibians will be amongst the two billion voters in 50 countries worldwide who will cast their votes during the course of 2024, and with new census data indicating that the country’s population increased from 2.1 million to just over three million, the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) will have its work cut out for it to ensure that all eligible citizens are registered to cast their votes come 27 November.

Economists have begun weighing in on how the new population statistics will impact the work of the ECN during the period leading up to the elections. This includes having to register new voters and voters whose cards are more than 10 years old, printing ballot papers and carrying out voter education programmes to ensure that registered voters actually make it to the polls.

The electoral body has given itself two months to register all eligible voters who are currently not on the voters roll.

With the law requiring ECN to prepare, publish and display a provisional voters register 90 days before the election date for public scrutiny and objections, this means ECN has until 27 August to complete the registration process.

Significant increase expected

The total number of registered voters in 2019 stood at 1 358 468.

With the census results indicating that the Namibian population has since grown to 3 022 401, a significant increase is expected in the new voters roll.

The return of ballot papers, at the expense of electronic voting machines, is also expected to place added pressure on the electoral preparations, especially when considering the country’s cumbersome procurement processes.

Local economist Rui Tyitende expects ECN will have its hands full between now and Election Day.

“If you look at the number of people who were eligible to vote in 2019, there were 1.2 million, and 800 000 people showed up to vote. We should expect the number to increase if civil society organisations and the ECN become involved in voter education,” he said.

If there are any shortcomings in terms of funding, the focus should go back to the central government, he added.

On the youth demographic, Tyitende said he expects a significant portion of the youth to stay away come elections.

“The onus is on us as civil society organisations and academics to ask them why they stay away. Mark my words, young people will decide if Swapo will stay in power. The youth have a lot to lose by not participating in this election,” he noted.

According to ECN’s timelines, the voter-registration process will run from 3 June to 1 August.

Most important elections

Economist Salomo Hei said the preliminary census figures will be key for ECN to decide how to distribute its resources for the registration process as well as the elections.

“The population has grown, which means there will be a greater demand for electoral service. The statistics will help ECN determine the number of election officials they will employ, number of registration and polling stations in specific areas as well as the level of advocacy required to prevent voter apathy,” he said.

This year’s election is expected to be the country’s most important since independence, due to the current political climate.

While Swapo has reigned supreme since 1990, there’s uncertainty about whether the former liberation movement can maintain its dominance.

Other key election dates include 14 and 16 October, which are the deadlines for the nominations of independent candidates and political parties respectively. Those abroad, sea-going personnel members and the army will vote on 13 November, followed by the general public on 27 November.