Hage between a rock and a hard place
Politburo members give president two options
President Hage Geingob has two choices to make ahead of the Swapo congress in November, politburo members have decided.
Swapo Party president Hage Geingob has been told he will retain his position unchallenged - on condition that he avoids endorsing any candidate ahead of this year’s elective congress.
Former presidents Sam Nujoma and Hifikepunye Pohamba both endorsed their preferred successors, with the latter backing Geingob ahead of the 2012 congress.
Nujoma nominated Pohamba ahead of the 2004 congress, a tradition that supporters of current party vice-president Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah want kept alive.
In February, Swapo veteran Helmut Angula denounced the trend, saying it does not bode well with the ideals of the party.
He was of the opinion that candidates should contest fairly without any assistance from the incumbent, who is usually very powerful.
Namibian Sun has it on good authority that the party politburo has told Geingob it would push to ensure that his position as party president would not be contested for - but only if he agrees not to endorse his potential successor.
If he agrees, the politburo will influence the central committee to ratify this decision to all but ensure Geingob’s position in the party is secured.
Centre of power
Geingob is a fierce advocate of the ‘one centre of power’ principle, which means being president of both the ruling party and the country. He still has three years left as head of state and would not want to report to a separate party president, Swapo insiders said.
He has not committed to the deal yet, but it is understood that while he prefers to remain party president, he also wants to have an influence on who succeeds him.
A party source said: “We have seen what happened in Angola and Botswana where the successors turned against those whom they replaced as soon as they took office. Hage wants comfort in this regard by ensuring that he is succeeded by someone he trusts”.
Geingob’s spokesperson Dr Alfredo Hengari yesterday ignored questions on whether the president would endorse anyone.
The head of state is known to have wanted defence minister Frans Kapofi to succeed him, but the so-called Helmut Amendments, which require the successor to have served in the central committee for 10 consecutive years, might prove prohibitive.
The Helmut Amendments have angered many people in Swapo, and a special central committee meeting in August will decide whether to relax or retain them.
“He likes Kapofi and you can see how he has deployed him in recent years. Kapofi is respected within senior party figures, including former People's Liberation Army of Namibia combatants. Hage was the first president to make him a minister [in the presidency] and now he promoted him to the defence portfolio.”
Reshuffle mooted
A cabinet reshuffle is being mooted after congress, depending on various outcomes of that event.
If current Prime Minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila emerges victorious for the coveted party vice-president position, she is tipped for promotion to the same position in government.
“Nangolo Mbumba [current country vice-president] has on numerous occasions indicated that he is tired and would like to retire. If Saara wins, she will be promoted to vice to prepare her to take over from Geingob in 2025,” a party official said.
Finance minister Iipumbu Shiimi, one of Geingob’s blue-eyed boys, will then be promoted to the prime minister position, Swapo insiders say.
“If Hage can’t get his way to make Kapofi a candidate, he will back people who are in their 50s, like Saara and Shiimi. He also liked [former defence minister] Peter Vilho, but that guy is out of the picture now.”
Former presidents Sam Nujoma and Hifikepunye Pohamba both endorsed their preferred successors, with the latter backing Geingob ahead of the 2012 congress.
Nujoma nominated Pohamba ahead of the 2004 congress, a tradition that supporters of current party vice-president Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah want kept alive.
In February, Swapo veteran Helmut Angula denounced the trend, saying it does not bode well with the ideals of the party.
He was of the opinion that candidates should contest fairly without any assistance from the incumbent, who is usually very powerful.
Namibian Sun has it on good authority that the party politburo has told Geingob it would push to ensure that his position as party president would not be contested for - but only if he agrees not to endorse his potential successor.
If he agrees, the politburo will influence the central committee to ratify this decision to all but ensure Geingob’s position in the party is secured.
Centre of power
Geingob is a fierce advocate of the ‘one centre of power’ principle, which means being president of both the ruling party and the country. He still has three years left as head of state and would not want to report to a separate party president, Swapo insiders said.
He has not committed to the deal yet, but it is understood that while he prefers to remain party president, he also wants to have an influence on who succeeds him.
A party source said: “We have seen what happened in Angola and Botswana where the successors turned against those whom they replaced as soon as they took office. Hage wants comfort in this regard by ensuring that he is succeeded by someone he trusts”.
Geingob’s spokesperson Dr Alfredo Hengari yesterday ignored questions on whether the president would endorse anyone.
The head of state is known to have wanted defence minister Frans Kapofi to succeed him, but the so-called Helmut Amendments, which require the successor to have served in the central committee for 10 consecutive years, might prove prohibitive.
The Helmut Amendments have angered many people in Swapo, and a special central committee meeting in August will decide whether to relax or retain them.
“He likes Kapofi and you can see how he has deployed him in recent years. Kapofi is respected within senior party figures, including former People's Liberation Army of Namibia combatants. Hage was the first president to make him a minister [in the presidency] and now he promoted him to the defence portfolio.”
Reshuffle mooted
A cabinet reshuffle is being mooted after congress, depending on various outcomes of that event.
If current Prime Minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila emerges victorious for the coveted party vice-president position, she is tipped for promotion to the same position in government.
“Nangolo Mbumba [current country vice-president] has on numerous occasions indicated that he is tired and would like to retire. If Saara wins, she will be promoted to vice to prepare her to take over from Geingob in 2025,” a party official said.
Finance minister Iipumbu Shiimi, one of Geingob’s blue-eyed boys, will then be promoted to the prime minister position, Swapo insiders say.
“If Hage can’t get his way to make Kapofi a candidate, he will back people who are in their 50s, like Saara and Shiimi. He also liked [former defence minister] Peter Vilho, but that guy is out of the picture now.”
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