The expanding theatre of violence and foreboding: Whither the Middle East?

In an essay entitled &#039;Has Democracy a Future?&#039;, historian Arthur Schlesinger wrote that “people of good will in 1900 believe in the inevitability of democracy, the invincibility of progress, the decency of human nature, and the coming reign of reason and peace.”The then-president of Stanford University, David Starr Jordan, echoed Schlesinger’s positive outlook by adding that “the man of the twentieth century will be a hopeful man. He will love the world, and the world will love him.”However, the upbeat mood has faced and succumbed to several setbacks over the subsequent years.For example, in 1975, Michael Adams reported that “the news that broke soon after two o’clock on the afternoon of 6 October 1973 was greeted everywhere with incredulity. Egyptian troops crossing the Suez Canal and storming through the defences of the Bar-Lev line; Egyptian engineers methodically laying pontoon bridges under surprisingly ineffective Israeli fire; Syrian tanks in their hundreds driving across the Golan plateau, and overrunning the settlements established there since 1967 – these were not the familiar stereotypes of war in the Middle East.”Writing in &#039;A History of the Jews&#039;, Paul Johnson adds that “an element of technological surprise in the effectiveness of Arab anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles enabled them to inflict disturbing losses on Israeli planes and armour. For the first time in the quarter-century of the state’s existence, Israel faced the possibility of a major defeat... But the Syrian advance had been stemmed on 9 October; the next day, in response to desperate Israeli pleas, the American President, Richard Nixon, began an emergency airlift of advanced weapons... this was the turning point and Israel moved swiftly towards a victory as decisive as that of 1967...”Expanding conflict In a few days, the world will reflect on the war that has entangled Israel since 7 October last year, when Hamas terrorists visited the deadliest attack on Jews since the Holocaust. In trying to address all facets of the 7 October incursion, Israel has not only fought Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. It has also exchanged fire with Iran. Following orders from Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and as payback for Israel’s assassination of the Hezbollah leader in Beirut, Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday. The rapidly expanding and complex war theatre has now led Israel to launch ground raids in Lebanon.The disturbing conflict situation in many ways eclipsed the business of the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly, which took place in New York last week. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told adversaries that “if you strike us, we will strike you. There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that’s true of the entire Middle East.” Other countries, however, seemed anxious for the fighting to stop.Netanyahu referred to comments about his country as “lies and slander and an antisemitic swamp.” Recalling Jewish history from a biblical perspective, Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasised Israel’s hunger for peace. He told the General Assembly that “the eternity of Israel will not falter” (abbreviated from 1 Samuel 15:29). While Netanyahu seemed to focus on the Bible’s Old Testament, Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley of Barbados sought to draw the Assembly’s attention to the New Testament book of Romans (12:19), which reads, “vengeance is Mine, I will repay, says the Lord.”I do not think Mottley wanted to engage in a Bible quiz with Netanyahu. I believe that she sought to emphasise other methods of addressing the burgeoning Middle East crisis. In his speech, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, for example, reminded delegates that his country approached the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to “seek an order to prevent Israel from committing genocide against the people of Gaza.”Reiterating the call for an immediate cessation of fighting and the release of all hostages, Ramaphosa said his country “welcomes the support that several countries have given to the case... the ICJ’s orders make it clear that there is a plausible case of genocide against the people of Gaza. Achieving and maintaining peace requires the collective will of the community of nations.”Forms of powerSouth Africa’s involvement has, interestingly, been likened to the use of soft power in international relations. Political science lecturer Nicolas Blarel says power works best in relational terms that employ “the ability of actor A to influence the behaviour of actor B.”Soft power contrasts with traditional approaches where military and economic might function as carrots and sticks to penalise, pressurise, or pay off other actors in the power game.American political scientist Joseph Nye introduced the term soft power in his 1990 book titled &#039;Bound to Lead: The changing nature of American Power&#039;. Supporters of soft power quickly point out that South Africa won the Rugby World Cup tournament and hosted the BRICS Summit last year. These two events align with the philosophy of “international engagements that use a country’s reputation in culture, sport, diplomacy and positive global contribution...to persuade, motivate, influence and attract.”I like the sound of soft power until I remember that historian Paul Johnson argues that Israel’s acceptance of a ceasefire in 1967 was “dictated more by political and psychological than by military factors. In each of the four wars there was a complete lack of symmetry. The Arab countries could afford to lose many wars. Israel could not afford to lose one. An Israeli victory could not win peace. But an Israeli defeat meant catastrophe... Dr Harold Fisch, rector of Bar-Ilan University, insisted: ‘There is only one nation to whom the land belongs in trust and by covenant promise, and that is the Jewish people. No temporary demographic changes can alter this basic fact, which is the bedrock of the Jewish faith; just as one wife does not have two husbands, so one land does not have two sovereign nations in possession of it.”At this point, it is perhaps time to ask, once more, whither the Middle East? *Lawrence Kamwi previously worked as a broadcast journalist and civil servant in Zimbabwe. He now enjoys writing on eclectic subjects and studying filmmaking.

The expanding theatre of violence and foreboding: Whither the Middle East?

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Namibian Sun 2025-01-31

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The expanding theatre of violence and foreboding: Whither the Middle East?

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Namibian Sun 2025-01-31

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