Prepare for a possible rerun for presidency after November elections

As Namibia approaches the 27 November elections, the possibility of a rerun of the presidential race becomes critical. This could happen if votes are split among political parties and independent candidates.

The establishment of political parties such as the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) – a threat not only to Swapo but also to other opposition parties – and Affirmative Repositioning (AR), along with independent candidates, has introduced a new dynamic to the Namibian political system.

Swapo was previously in a stronger position to win elections without the presence of IPC and AR. The emergence of these two political parties has complicated both the presidential and National Assembly races for Swapo. This could result in no candidate obtaining more than 50 percent of the total votes required by the Namibian Constitution.

Article 28(b) of the Namibian Constitution states: “If no person shall be elected as President unless he or she [has] received more than fifty (50) percent of the valid votes cast and [the necessary number of ballots shall be conducted until such result is reached] if no candidate received more than fifty (50) percent of the votes, a second ballot shall be conducted in which the two (2) candidates who have received the most votes in the previous ballot shall participate and the candidate who received the most votes in the second ballot shall be duly elected.”

Discussions about adopting the South African model of coalition government have been ongoing for some time. However, even if no candidate secures more than 50 percent of the vote, this will not materialise, as the Namibian Constitution specifies a different approach. This is why there might be a rerun of the presidential race after the November elections.

The sooner, the better. It might be wise for the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) to have additional resources prepared in case such a scenario occurs.

It is no secret that many voters have lost faith in opposition parties that existed before the establishment of IPC and AR due to their inability to effectively challenge the ruling party over more than 30 years of independence.

IPC and AR have introduced a new dynamic to how people will choose their leaders in November. This means that votes will likely be divided among these two political entities, making it more challenging to secure the required winning percentages.

Politically, IPC and Swapo have strong chances of winning the November elections. However, their support by voters is influenced by other political parties such as the Landless People's Movement (LPM), Popular Democratic Movement (PDM) and Affirmative Repositioning (AR). Additionally, the deregistration of the Namibia Economic Freedom Fighters (NEFF) and the Christian Democratic Voice (CDV) parties adds another layer of political consequence.

It is also interesting to note that Swapo has lost support after expelling Dr Panduleni Itula, who caused a significant shake-up in the political system for the first time in Namibia's history when he ran as an independent candidate in the 2019 presidential and National Assembly elections.

Additionally, some people are of the view that it is too early for Namibia to be headed by a female president. Female leaders are believed to be more suitable for heading developed countries. It is also an African concept and culture that men are more naturally suitable for leadership of the highest level, like heading the presidency. All these analyses add to a potential rerun of the presidential race.

Let us be prepared for whatever comes from the upcoming elections. Watch this space!

*Stefanus Nashama holds a B.A. Honours degree in Public Relations and Political Studies from the University of Namibia. The views expressed in this article are strictly his own and do not reflect those of his employer.