Stabilising Syria, finding peace

The Syrian conflict has made headlines across the globe since it began with an uprising in March 2011. As the conflict in the country escalated, the response by the international community has raised eyebrows. Powers such as the United States, the UK and France, have surprisingly opted to arm rebel groups on the ground in the country leading to the massive militarisation of all the factions fighting in the country. Turkey is in a particularly difficult space with this conflict as it has an interest in limited Kurdish expansion but also assisting is allies, both the US and Russia. Israel has repeatedly attacked Iranian military installations within Syria whenever it has perceived to have had an opportunity. Its primary motive is the presence of Hezbollah and Iran in Syria as long as the Assad regime stands.

None of these forces took any direct action in the crisis, choosing instead, more covert support as well as intelligence interference.

In mid-2015, four years after the conflict began, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad appealed to the international community to assist in the fight against terror organisations exploiting the chaos in his country and making millions from the trafficking of oil. As the chaos on the ground escalated more strides were made by especially ISIS and human rights infringements and abuses became commonplace. The human rights commissioner of the United Nations Navi Pillay, has made repeated requests to halt the arming of the groups fighting in the country as this was fuelling the conflict, death toll and abuses.



Arming rebel groups

According to the United Nations Human Rights Commissioner (UNHCR), casualties in the conflict could not continue past the end of 2013 due to lack of access. At the start of 2014, the UNHCR said 128 000 were killed, roughly two million wounded and many more disappeared.

There are several groups fighting either for themselves, for the Assad government or, to topple the Assad regime. These include the Free Syrian Army, the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurdish People's Protection Units, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (formerly al-Nusra), Hezbollah and ISIS. Iranian and Afghan fighters are also active, fighting for Assad.

Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to Assad's call and on 30 September 2015, launched Russia's legitimate military operation primarily against ISIS and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham.

Putin's administration has viewed the uprising in Syria as a destabilising factor in the region and one which could create a foothold for terror organisations, including al Qaeda and ISIS. ISIS has also openly declared war on Russia but has made no such direct threats to other major powers on the world.

“The complete eradication of terrorists is the first step to settle the Syrian conflict,” Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian General Staff said at the time.

At the start of the operation, terror groups controlled roughly 70% of Syrian territory. Oil was being sold illegally and several companies, including arms manufacturers in Italy, Belgium and even Switzerland, have been implicated in selling weaponry while other firms have sold communications equipment and other materials to drive the war.



Targeting terrorists

The Russian military, up until 30 September this year, had conducted 90 000 airstrikes and 28 000 military sorties. Weapons and munitions supply routes were cut off, oil trafficking has all but come to a halt and the area controlled by the Syrian Arab Army has increased four-fold.

Senior US officials have admitted, according to several sources, that Russia had, as early as December 2015, achieved its central goal of stabilising the Assad government and, “with the costs and casualties relatively low, was in a position to sustain the operation at that level for years to come”.

Russian forces aided the Syrian government to retake control of the central and northern areas of the country, reclaiming terror footholds like Aleppo, Homs and Hama, and oil fields were returned to government control. With Russian assistance, Assad's government also regained control of the southern border with Iraq and Jordan.

Work has now begun to the east of the country at Deir ez-Zur where Islamic groups had been redeployed. According to Russia Today, Syrian troops are currently making steadfast advances along the west bank of the Euphrates and ousting ISIS. The news comes after a series of major defeats for the jihadists, close to being wiped out in eastern Syria.



Final bombardment

Last week, the defence ministry said that the final target will be the areas west of the Euphrates River and those attacks, supported by the Syrian army, started a few days ago, marking great successes.

Many settlements have since joined the reconciliation process under Russian reconciliation centre and the number now stands at 2 287. While 234 armed groups have laid down weapons and are under reintegration programmes at the centre.

According to Sergey Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, Syrian government forces, with Russian support, had liberated 998 cities and villages. More than 90% of total territory was free from ISIS at the end of November and the group no longer controls any major Syrian city.

Russia has largely driven the peace effort in Syria and the BBC concurs with American military officials stating that “Putin has achieved success in Syria with relatively few Russian casualties and with a relatively limited military deployment.”

The humanitarian effort is underway but there are obstacles. Security measures by the US on the Iraqi border have trapped more than 50 000 refugees in the Rukban camp, the head of the Russian centre for Syrian reconciliation Sergei Kuralenko, said.

Many other areas however, previously closed off due to terrorist activity, have been opened following the Russian offensive, and aid organisations are able to reach these civilians.

Russia has done its share for humanitarian aid with 2 219 tonnes delivered and almost 69 000 civilians treated by Russian medical specialists.

President Putin continues to work on a roadmap for peace and this week, held a series of meetings with Erdogan and Assad, as well as Iran to engage in dialogue to find a lasting solution.

Jonathan Marcus of the BBC summed it up when he wrote that “Russia has emerged from the Syrian crisis with its military and diplomatic reputation significantly enhanced. It has ensured the survival of the Assad regime at the same time expanding its own small military footprint in the country. It, not the United States, is the 'go to' player. Russia is marshalling a loose alliance of Iran and Turkey to try to plot Syria's future. Even the Saudis have had to beat a path to Moscow's door.”

*Additional information provided by the Russian Embassy in Windhoek.

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