Presidential vote upset unlikely
Some analysts predict that President Hage Geingob's support will tumble from 87% to around 60% in the presidential vote.
Political pundits say they do not expect a second round of presidential voting, while predicting that although President Hage Geingob's support may have taken a dip over the last five years, he will still be able to garner at least 60% of the vote.
With independent presidential candidate and Swapo member Panduleni Itula making waves during the run-up to Wednesday's general election, opinions have been expressed that he could seriously upset the apple cart.
In some quarters, Itula has been described as a “party-pooper” or a “spoiler” to a Geingob victory, and going by some of the results from the special voting held on 13 November that have trickled onto social media, it appears as if he has done remarkably well.
However, political analysts think Geingob will win the election.
Professor Nico Horn said observers differ on the possible outcome, with some analysts giving Geingob an outright win of around 60% of the vote. Others, he said, believe the possible outcome is too close to call for now.
“My guess is that all the other nominees (besides Geingob and Itula) will withdraw if the first round does not ensure an outright winner,” Horn said.
The Electoral Act, as amended in 2014, stipulates that the president shall be elected by direct, universal and equal suffrage. The presidential candidate has to get more than 50% of the votes cast.
If a candidate does not get more than 50% in the first round, a second round of voting will be conducted within 60 days.
Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) executive director Graham Hopwood said it is unlikely that Itula will make big enough inroads into Geingob's support.
He thinks Swapo will retain its two-thirds majority in the National Assembly election, but thinks Geingob's support might be lower than the astronomical 87% he got in 2014.
Hopwood thinks Itula might garner between 20% and 25% of the votes.
“Swapo will still be dominating,” said Hopwood, adding though that Itula has captured the imagination of young people struggling with unemployment and educational challenges.
Three factors in Itula's favour, Hopwood said, are the youth factor, confusion among traditional Swapo members about his continued party membership, as well as a “tribal factor”.
CATHERINE SASMAN
With independent presidential candidate and Swapo member Panduleni Itula making waves during the run-up to Wednesday's general election, opinions have been expressed that he could seriously upset the apple cart.
In some quarters, Itula has been described as a “party-pooper” or a “spoiler” to a Geingob victory, and going by some of the results from the special voting held on 13 November that have trickled onto social media, it appears as if he has done remarkably well.
However, political analysts think Geingob will win the election.
Professor Nico Horn said observers differ on the possible outcome, with some analysts giving Geingob an outright win of around 60% of the vote. Others, he said, believe the possible outcome is too close to call for now.
“My guess is that all the other nominees (besides Geingob and Itula) will withdraw if the first round does not ensure an outright winner,” Horn said.
The Electoral Act, as amended in 2014, stipulates that the president shall be elected by direct, universal and equal suffrage. The presidential candidate has to get more than 50% of the votes cast.
If a candidate does not get more than 50% in the first round, a second round of voting will be conducted within 60 days.
Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) executive director Graham Hopwood said it is unlikely that Itula will make big enough inroads into Geingob's support.
He thinks Swapo will retain its two-thirds majority in the National Assembly election, but thinks Geingob's support might be lower than the astronomical 87% he got in 2014.
Hopwood thinks Itula might garner between 20% and 25% of the votes.
“Swapo will still be dominating,” said Hopwood, adding though that Itula has captured the imagination of young people struggling with unemployment and educational challenges.
Three factors in Itula's favour, Hopwood said, are the youth factor, confusion among traditional Swapo members about his continued party membership, as well as a “tribal factor”.
CATHERINE SASMAN
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