Hage faces Zim test
As Namibia's head of state prepares to take up the SADC chairperson role in mid-August, the hot potato of the Zimbabwe election aftermath will likely be his first major headache.
Local analysts have called on President Hage Geingob to rise above traditional relationships Swapo may have with Zanu-PF and its politicians, and play a statesmanlike role when he confronts the very real possibility of chaos in the neighbouring country following this coming Monday's general elections.
The aftermath of the first post-Robert Mugabe presidency poll has already been tainted by reports of 900 000 potential ghost voters, as well as the hand of Mugabe still at play.
There are also concerns the Zimbabwe military will not accept a Zanu-PF defeat, while analysts say the elections are too close to call.
Media reports suggest that Zimbabwe's polls look set to be the tightest contest ever in the country's history, as Zanu-PF presidential candidate Emmerson Mnangagwa and Nelson Chamisa of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) run neck and neck.
The MDC has consistently raised concerns around the credibility of the voters' roll, which reportedly includes thousands of fake names, duplicates and even dead people.
News24 reported that over 100 000 potentially deceased voters were copied from the 2013 voters roll to the 2018 roll.
Their ID numbers and in some cases other details were purposely changed.
It also reported that these so-called ghost voters may number close to 900 000.
Geingob will take over the reins of SADC during a summit to be held in Windhoek in mid-August.
Namibia has intensified its preparations for the 16 to 18 August gathering, where leaders are expected to review progress made towards regional integration and the promotion of socio-economic development.
However, because of the timing of the Zimbabwe polls and their expected aftermath, the country is likely to be on the summit agenda and will feature in backroom talk between leaders.
The 16 SADC member states are Comoros, Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Malawi, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Seychelles, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
New blood
South African-based commentator Nixon Kariithi said while SADC has a poor reputation and is seen as weak, there is hope that Geingob will bring with him a new energy to eventually transform the character of the regional body.
“SADC needs wisdom and changes like these offer the region or Africa an opportunity to renew themselves. So much has been said about Zimbabwean politics. We sit on an opportunity to deal differently with Zimbabwe; something that would be really good for the region,” he said.
How people will respond towards the fact that Geingob's credentials are based on liberation politics is another story.
However, nothing stops Geingob from becoming a leader of today, said Kariithi.
“History tells us that liberation political parties are often too entrenched and apathetic to change. That is what you see in how Robert Mugabe has survived - the camaraderie and comradeship,” said Kariithi.
“One hopes that as he (Geingob) saw the need to clean up in his country and hopefully he will bring that same zest with him (when it comes to SADC). It is clear he has not shied away from radical decisions.”
Local political analyst Ndumba Kamwanyah said all indications are there that Geingob has the ability to tackle the role of the SADC chairmanship with renewed energy, action and vision.
He also commended Geingob as being an A-plus candidate for the role, with a reputation that includes being prime minister and the director of elections during Namibia's transitional period.
“We in Namibia understand the true concept of free and fair elections. I believe it is in him to do it, especially if one is to go with his new Africa approach, which calls for transparency, accountability and good governance. It looks like he will push for a more open and free organisation, instead of the close cards played by his predecessors,” he Kamwanyah.
SADC's biggest challenge as a regional body is to move from merely observing elections to closely monitoring electoral proceedings in member states, believes Charles Mubita, a former senior manager at the regional organisation.
“SADC's biggest challenge is that it sends only observer missions and not monitoring missions. The voters' roll is already a challenge. What they do now is to merely observe and take notes and then write a report to say the elections were free and fair. I think SADC must grow from that to monitoring missions,” he advised.
Mubita believes Geingob's challenge as the regional bloc chairman will be his ability to extract himself from the strong and long-lasting bilateral relations between Namibia and Zimbabwe.
“As summit chairman you need to stay above the bilateral relations between your country and the country holding elections. You will have to juggle the two, you have to put on a new hat as chairman. It sometimes becomes a bit difficult to separate the two, as we have seen with Lesotho.”
Mubita explained that while holding the SADC chairmanship, South Africa was often challenged when dealing with the political turmoil in Lesotho, which is landlocked by South Africa.
This was because South Africa's security is directly affected by the happenings in Lesotho.
JEMIMA BEUKES
The aftermath of the first post-Robert Mugabe presidency poll has already been tainted by reports of 900 000 potential ghost voters, as well as the hand of Mugabe still at play.
There are also concerns the Zimbabwe military will not accept a Zanu-PF defeat, while analysts say the elections are too close to call.
Media reports suggest that Zimbabwe's polls look set to be the tightest contest ever in the country's history, as Zanu-PF presidential candidate Emmerson Mnangagwa and Nelson Chamisa of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) run neck and neck.
The MDC has consistently raised concerns around the credibility of the voters' roll, which reportedly includes thousands of fake names, duplicates and even dead people.
News24 reported that over 100 000 potentially deceased voters were copied from the 2013 voters roll to the 2018 roll.
Their ID numbers and in some cases other details were purposely changed.
It also reported that these so-called ghost voters may number close to 900 000.
Geingob will take over the reins of SADC during a summit to be held in Windhoek in mid-August.
Namibia has intensified its preparations for the 16 to 18 August gathering, where leaders are expected to review progress made towards regional integration and the promotion of socio-economic development.
However, because of the timing of the Zimbabwe polls and their expected aftermath, the country is likely to be on the summit agenda and will feature in backroom talk between leaders.
The 16 SADC member states are Comoros, Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Malawi, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Seychelles, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
New blood
South African-based commentator Nixon Kariithi said while SADC has a poor reputation and is seen as weak, there is hope that Geingob will bring with him a new energy to eventually transform the character of the regional body.
“SADC needs wisdom and changes like these offer the region or Africa an opportunity to renew themselves. So much has been said about Zimbabwean politics. We sit on an opportunity to deal differently with Zimbabwe; something that would be really good for the region,” he said.
How people will respond towards the fact that Geingob's credentials are based on liberation politics is another story.
However, nothing stops Geingob from becoming a leader of today, said Kariithi.
“History tells us that liberation political parties are often too entrenched and apathetic to change. That is what you see in how Robert Mugabe has survived - the camaraderie and comradeship,” said Kariithi.
“One hopes that as he (Geingob) saw the need to clean up in his country and hopefully he will bring that same zest with him (when it comes to SADC). It is clear he has not shied away from radical decisions.”
Local political analyst Ndumba Kamwanyah said all indications are there that Geingob has the ability to tackle the role of the SADC chairmanship with renewed energy, action and vision.
He also commended Geingob as being an A-plus candidate for the role, with a reputation that includes being prime minister and the director of elections during Namibia's transitional period.
“We in Namibia understand the true concept of free and fair elections. I believe it is in him to do it, especially if one is to go with his new Africa approach, which calls for transparency, accountability and good governance. It looks like he will push for a more open and free organisation, instead of the close cards played by his predecessors,” he Kamwanyah.
SADC's biggest challenge as a regional body is to move from merely observing elections to closely monitoring electoral proceedings in member states, believes Charles Mubita, a former senior manager at the regional organisation.
“SADC's biggest challenge is that it sends only observer missions and not monitoring missions. The voters' roll is already a challenge. What they do now is to merely observe and take notes and then write a report to say the elections were free and fair. I think SADC must grow from that to monitoring missions,” he advised.
Mubita believes Geingob's challenge as the regional bloc chairman will be his ability to extract himself from the strong and long-lasting bilateral relations between Namibia and Zimbabwe.
“As summit chairman you need to stay above the bilateral relations between your country and the country holding elections. You will have to juggle the two, you have to put on a new hat as chairman. It sometimes becomes a bit difficult to separate the two, as we have seen with Lesotho.”
Mubita explained that while holding the SADC chairmanship, South Africa was often challenged when dealing with the political turmoil in Lesotho, which is landlocked by South Africa.
This was because South Africa's security is directly affected by the happenings in Lesotho.
JEMIMA BEUKES
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