Geingob's 87% under fire
In the previous election, President Hage Geingob garnered a record percentage of votes for president but this, some say, is set to change come November.
Some analysts believe that lower votes for President Hage Geingob in next month's presidential election will be used as ammunition by some of his detractors to undermine him as party president.
They also predict that the threat of diminished votes, albeit tiny, will come from Dr Panduleni Itula and Bernadus Swartbooi, whose votes will come largely from the Swapo base.
Political commentator Ndumba Kamwanyah says judging by the performance of two independent candidates in recent Ondangwa Urban and Oshakati East regional council by-elections, it is likely that Itula's candidature will erode Geingob's support.
“If that happens, it means there is or can be an emerging legitimacy crisis for Geingob's presidency. Lower votes than the smashing record he scored in his first campaign would mean a vote of no confidence from the Namibian electorate that they are not happy with his performance the last four years,” said Kamwanyah.
On the other hand, he is not convinced that opposition party candidates will make much of an impact in the presidential election, adding that a splintered opposition is bad for opposition parties because they mainly take votes from each other.
“It is very important that he [Geingob] maintains his record of being more popular than the Swapo Party, otherwise it would buy into the narrative by his opponents that he is not delivering. Lower votes will be used as ammo by his opponents within the party to undermine him as the president of the party,” Kamwanyah argues.
Political analyst Graham Hopwood points out that it is not clear whether Itula has the financial backing and other resources to mount a nationwide campaign.
“From 1994 to 2009 Swapo as a party always performed at more or less the same level as the party's presidential candidate. It seems likely that 2014 was a blip in the sense that Geingob was more popular than the party and that this year the party and its candidate will be back near the same levels of support.
“The unknown factor is Dr Itula. If he is able to campaign effectively in the next few weeks he could eat in to the president's support, but I remain cautious about this until he has been nominated and started his campaign in earnest,” Hopwood says.
Rakkel Andreas is not convinced that voters will be dramatically swayed by Geingob's opponents, because Namibians still believe the party and its president are the same thing.
“I do not see the independent candidate as a threat to the president's support base, as I view many Swapo supporters as loyal to the party and at the moment the party has not matured enough to separate the man from itself. As it stands, the president is the party and the party [is] the president. Voting for the independent candidate who is a member of Swapo but not the official Swapo presidential candidate, is still viewed as voting for the opposition,” she says.
Andreas believes that Geingob will again receive votes from non-Swapo members because he is still popular in some respects.
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JEMIMA BEUKES
They also predict that the threat of diminished votes, albeit tiny, will come from Dr Panduleni Itula and Bernadus Swartbooi, whose votes will come largely from the Swapo base.
Political commentator Ndumba Kamwanyah says judging by the performance of two independent candidates in recent Ondangwa Urban and Oshakati East regional council by-elections, it is likely that Itula's candidature will erode Geingob's support.
“If that happens, it means there is or can be an emerging legitimacy crisis for Geingob's presidency. Lower votes than the smashing record he scored in his first campaign would mean a vote of no confidence from the Namibian electorate that they are not happy with his performance the last four years,” said Kamwanyah.
On the other hand, he is not convinced that opposition party candidates will make much of an impact in the presidential election, adding that a splintered opposition is bad for opposition parties because they mainly take votes from each other.
“It is very important that he [Geingob] maintains his record of being more popular than the Swapo Party, otherwise it would buy into the narrative by his opponents that he is not delivering. Lower votes will be used as ammo by his opponents within the party to undermine him as the president of the party,” Kamwanyah argues.
Political analyst Graham Hopwood points out that it is not clear whether Itula has the financial backing and other resources to mount a nationwide campaign.
“From 1994 to 2009 Swapo as a party always performed at more or less the same level as the party's presidential candidate. It seems likely that 2014 was a blip in the sense that Geingob was more popular than the party and that this year the party and its candidate will be back near the same levels of support.
“The unknown factor is Dr Itula. If he is able to campaign effectively in the next few weeks he could eat in to the president's support, but I remain cautious about this until he has been nominated and started his campaign in earnest,” Hopwood says.
Rakkel Andreas is not convinced that voters will be dramatically swayed by Geingob's opponents, because Namibians still believe the party and its president are the same thing.
“I do not see the independent candidate as a threat to the president's support base, as I view many Swapo supporters as loyal to the party and at the moment the party has not matured enough to separate the man from itself. As it stands, the president is the party and the party [is] the president. Voting for the independent candidate who is a member of Swapo but not the official Swapo presidential candidate, is still viewed as voting for the opposition,” she says.
Andreas believes that Geingob will again receive votes from non-Swapo members because he is still popular in some respects.
[email protected]
JEMIMA BEUKES
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