A mixed bag of wins, losses

The first three years of President Hage Geingob's presidency got a mixed bag of reactions from political and economic pundits, barely a week before his much-anticipated State of the Nation (SONA) address.

Geingob was described as a “president of rhetoric” but questions were raised about his follow-through to turn such rhetoric into reality.

Panellists at a discussion of his three years in office on Wednesday, however, did agree that his presidency has brought more transparency and accountability in government affairs.

The executive director of the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), Graham Hopwood, said Geingob in the past had been credited for setting the tone on improved governance and service delivery through his rhetoric on the Namibian House and inclusivity.

However, he added, after rhetoric comes the reckoning.

“And this year, it is appropriate that the government's record should come under closer scrutiny,” Hopwood stated.

Hopwood was of the opinion that Namibia's democracy remained intact, but expressed concern over the “heavy-handedness” in some areas, like suggestions that the media be regulated by the state and the “draconian” research law which is still on the cards despite its constitutionality being the subject of a High Court case.

A concern for Namibian democracy was the lack of citizen engagement, Hopwood added.

Hopwood and official opposition leader McHenry Venaani agreed that Geingob should be credited for the introduction of performance evaluations of public officials and the political leadership, but said it could be improved upon.

Venaani also lauded the president for publicly declaring his assets and for the introduction of the food bank.

Venaani, however, said it was important that the country create its own food security and not rely on imports.

Another plus for Geingob is the recognition he has given for the need to gain control over the national budget to save future generations from having to repay accumulated debts, as well as the improved social welfare, principally the increased old-age pension.



Harambee

Geingob got the thumbs up for introducing the Harambee Prosperity Plan (HPP), which his economic advisor, John Steytler, said was an accelerated impact plan of certain developmental targets contained in the National Development Plans (NDPs).

Hopwood said the HPP was of more value than the NDPs, which he said had not caught the public imagination, nor total government support judging by the lack of reporting and feedback from ministries on NDP 4.

“No one has mentioned that every desired outcome in NDP 4 was missed,” said Hopwood, suggesting more open and honest discussions of why this happened and what corrective measures should be taken.

“We have a great base or foundation to build on. Why should we limit ourselves? We hang back on so many issues,” Hopwood added.

He advocated for an HPP 2, which he proposed should be based on more consultation before it gets finalised.



Bane of corruption

Marring the Geingob administration, said Venaani, was corruption and how the president dealt with it.

Venaani castigated Geingob for not holding the defunct board of directors of the looted SME Bank to account and said Geingob fell short of taking action against those who had wilfully inflated the tender of the Hosea Kutako International Airport upgrade.

“Cancelling the tender does really fight corruption,” said Venaani, adding that most major tenders were riddled with corruption by “inside traders”.

He also criticised the fact that most of the major infrastructure tenders were awarded to foreign players who leave with cash in hand.

Venaani said the biggest bane of the national budget was the corrosion of corporate governance in state-owned enterprises and skewed priorities, such as the uneconomical routes pursued by Air Namibia for example.

“We need to reform the SOEs even if it means we go into strategic alliances,” Venaani proposed.

Hopwood said what hampered good governance was the slowness of implementation of government programmes which would have a major impact on intended poverty reduction before 2025.



The economy, national budget

Indileni Nanghonga, economist and analyst at Simonis Storm Securities, cautioned that broad unemployment had increased by 5.9% to 34% in 2016, with youth unemployment now estimated at 43.4% in 2016, up from 39% in 2014.

She said the total government debt over the last three years had doubled, with domestic debt increasing by 103%, which she said was unsustainable.

Nanghonga said it was likely that the government's debt-to-GDP ratio was edging towards 45%. The HPP target is 30%.

Steytler said the fact that Namibia's international reserves had increased two years after an economic downturn was good news.

He admitted that government debt had escalated but said the increase in debt was starting to decelerate. “Maybe we will reach the 30% benchmark debt-to-GDP [Gross Domestic Product] ratio but I think we are in a good space,” Steytler said.

He said although the infrastructure development pillar of the HPP had been negatively affected by budgetary constraints, a lot had been done on social progress and the increased focus on technical vocational training.

Nanghonga suggested that the country should try to allocate at least 20% of the budget to development projects. Currently more than 80% of the budget is spent on operational expenditure, of which about 50% is on the public wage bill.

Venaani said it was unsustainable for the country to spend 4.2% of its GDP on a defence force instead of creating sufficient jobs and housing.

CATHERINE SASMAN