Gloomy rainfall outlook over grain areas
• February rainfall outlook concerning
A new report warns that Namibian farmers will have to contend with little rain and very high temperatures in February.
Chances are that below-average rainfall may occur in February over Namibia’s grain-producing areas, which could also result in very high temperatures prevailing into February and March in these areas.
This information is based on the Climate Report for the Grain Areas of Namibia by independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg.
Van den Berg said fairly good rainfall of more than 20 mm is possible over the dryland grain areas in the north of Namibia until the end of this week.
However, little rain is expected over the Hardap area for the next few weeks.
Farmers are already concerned about the level of the Hardap Dam, which last week stood at about 18%.
If there is no further rain in its catchment area, irrigation from the dam to the Hardap irrigation scheme will only last until March or April.
Van den Berg said El Niño reached a peak in December 2023 but is currently moving more sideways.
Weather patterns
Nevertheless, rainfall conditions this summer so far in many areas in Southern Africa were better than expected considering the El Niño.
“However, there is a very high probability that drier conditions may return and occur from the latter part of January to March," Van den Berg warned.
He said tropical depressions and cyclones in the Indian Ocean can now also start to play a role, causing drier conditions over central to western parts of southern Africa, including Namibia.
“The development of La Niña conditions that can follow the current El Niño from the winter of 2024 into 2025 looks pretty good. It can be positive for average to above-average rainfall for the summer of 2024/2025.”
Local expectations
He said that in the maize triangle of Grootfontein, Otavi and Tsumeb, more than 30 mm of rain is possible until 18 January with only lighter precipitation expected for the rest of January.
Maximum temperatures can range between 26°C and 34°C.
In the Hochfeld area, between 20 mm and 30 mm of rain is possible until 18 January with only light precipitation for the rest of January. Maximum temperatures will be between 27°C and 36°C.
For the Hardap area, only light precipitation of less than 5 mm is expected tomorrow with between 10 mm and 15 mm around 28 to 31 January.
Maximum temperatures will be very hot, between 34°C and 40°C, for at least the next three weeks.
This information is based on the Climate Report for the Grain Areas of Namibia by independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg.
Van den Berg said fairly good rainfall of more than 20 mm is possible over the dryland grain areas in the north of Namibia until the end of this week.
However, little rain is expected over the Hardap area for the next few weeks.
Farmers are already concerned about the level of the Hardap Dam, which last week stood at about 18%.
If there is no further rain in its catchment area, irrigation from the dam to the Hardap irrigation scheme will only last until March or April.
Van den Berg said El Niño reached a peak in December 2023 but is currently moving more sideways.
Weather patterns
Nevertheless, rainfall conditions this summer so far in many areas in Southern Africa were better than expected considering the El Niño.
“However, there is a very high probability that drier conditions may return and occur from the latter part of January to March," Van den Berg warned.
He said tropical depressions and cyclones in the Indian Ocean can now also start to play a role, causing drier conditions over central to western parts of southern Africa, including Namibia.
“The development of La Niña conditions that can follow the current El Niño from the winter of 2024 into 2025 looks pretty good. It can be positive for average to above-average rainfall for the summer of 2024/2025.”
Local expectations
He said that in the maize triangle of Grootfontein, Otavi and Tsumeb, more than 30 mm of rain is possible until 18 January with only lighter precipitation expected for the rest of January.
Maximum temperatures can range between 26°C and 34°C.
In the Hochfeld area, between 20 mm and 30 mm of rain is possible until 18 January with only light precipitation for the rest of January. Maximum temperatures will be between 27°C and 36°C.
For the Hardap area, only light precipitation of less than 5 mm is expected tomorrow with between 10 mm and 15 mm around 28 to 31 January.
Maximum temperatures will be very hot, between 34°C and 40°C, for at least the next three weeks.
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