Namibian load shedding feared

NamPower has started devising mitigating strategies on how to deal with power supply in the event that troubled South African utility Eskom can no longer fulfil its contractual obligations towards Namibia.

This is according to NamPower insiders, despite the company publicly stating that load shedding is not on the cards for Namibia.

Other regional power utilities, such as the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority (Zesa) and Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (Zesco), are also enduring hard times.

But according to NamPower, it is unlikely Namibia will face constraints with regards to its ability to supply enough energy to all power users within the country because of the ‘good relations’ that exist between the two power utilities.

Namibian Sun, however, understands from insiders that the company’s management has genuine fears that constant power supply can no longer be guaranteed under the circumstances.

“It is obvious NamPower will not admit at this stage that the chances of load shedding being introduced in Namibia is a reality because they would not want to cause panic, but the truth of the matter is that load shedding is not a matter of 'if', but rather a matter of when it will hit Namibia,” an insider said.

Under pressure

Load shedding is currently being experienced in both South Africa and Zambia, a situation Eskom said will continue for the next two years.

Zambia’s Zesco introduced rotational load shedding due to weakened power generation owing to the low water levels of the Kariba Dam hydropower station.

NamPower procures electricity from both bulk power suppliers in addition to other producers in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP).

Eskom is also under pressure from the broader South African public, which is demanding it slash electricity supply to customers beyond its borders in order to take care of internal needs first.

Despite its current placations, NamPower - in a 2021 annual report - listed reliance on Eskom as a risk event, adding that it needed to develop a supply replacement strategy while implementing a “gradual reduction of imports” as well as “restructure imports and align exports”.

Agreements

As per agreements, NamPower imports 200 megawatts (MW) from Eskom and 100 MW from Zesco.

“NamPower and Eskom have a signed power supply agreement (PSA), based on the good bilateral relations between Namibia and South Africa. Due to regional cooperation established via the SAPP, the regional electricity players enter into PSAs, which may be extended,” NamPower said.

“The bilateral agreement with Eskom has been in existence for decades. There are additional options to engage participants from amongst SAPP members for bilateral agreements.”

Problem-fixing

Meanwhile, Eskom chairperson Mpho Makwena said the power utility aims to deliver some degree of predictability for South Africa while the company executes its turnaround plan.

This will require “some level of” permanent load shedding at stage two or stage three for at least two years so that critical maintenance can be done on power stations.

Addressing the media last weekend in South Africa, Makwena said the recovery of the coal fleet will not be accomplished in the near term and that it will take at least two years to reach an energy availability factor (EAF) of 70%.

This is coming off a low base of 58% EAF at present.

As part of the recovery plan, Eskom said it will address systemic issues, especially those relating to leadership and the entire organisational culture of the power utility.

Indecisiveness

Despite joining hands with several independent power producers over the years, Namibia has dilly-dallied when it comes to availing funds to set up power-generation mechanisms.

In 1992, NamPower’s first post-independent Namibia director, the late Polla Brand, mooted the creation of an independent base load producer; however, these calls fell on deaf ears.

Brand warned at the time that “without an independent energy supply, investment will suffer and established industries will be forced to close”.

Media records show he cautioned that Namibia had no option but to explore the potential of Epupa Falls as a source of affordable and reliable energy.

However, despite persistent talks about the development of the Epupa Hydropower Dam, plans were never transformed from theory into practice.

Another project that never got off the ground is the Baynes Hydroelectric Power Station in the north-eastern part of the country.

In a 1999 paper titled ‘A Case Study on the Proposed Epupa Hydropower Dam in Namibia’, Andrew Corbett, working for the Legal Resources Centre at the time, cautioned that “the price of importing electricity from South Africa will rise in future once South Africa no longer has power to spare”.

According to the paper, Epupa and Baynes would not have been the panacea to Namibia’s electricity needs, hence there would have been need to supplement them with other supply sources.

The average annual increase in electricity demand stood at 6.9% at the time.

Kudu death

When NamPower, Eskom and Shell Exploration and Production Namibia committed to forging ahead with plans to conduct a feasibility study for a gas-driven power plant in 1997, there were hopes that future electricity supply security would be attained, especially after further discoveries revealed the gas reserves to be in excess of 20 trillion cubic feet – up from the initial estimate which put the gas reserves at a maximum of five trillion cubic feet.

At the time, the envisaged power plant was predicted to be operational by 2005 with a power generation capacity of 750 MW.

According to Corbett, only 320 MW of power generated by Kudu would be consumed by Namibia, while the remaining 430 MW would be purchased by Eskom for industrial use in South Africa, particularly in the Western Cape.

The project, however, never saw the light of day.