Namibia vs SA: The frantic green hydrogen quest

If the prophets of clean energy are to be believed, the panacea to Namibia and South Africa’s socioeconomic challenges is green hydrogen.

This perhaps explains the race for the renewable energy source, which has sparked a development boom in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) - one that has come with an avalanche of promises coupled with high hopes.

So far, Namibia and South Africa are moving fast as they look to transition to clean energy, with the demand for green hydrogen expected to skyrocket in coming years.

Politically, the two continue to sing the song of intentional collaboration when it comes to green hydrogen, but the situation on the ground paints a different picture.

Both governments continue to experience common socioeconomic challenges such as high unemployment, housing crises, crime and economies growing at snail’s pace. These challenges have led to the populace in the respective countries running out of patience with their governments.

While the two neighbours continue to enjoy fruitful bilateral ties, South Africa has always enjoyed the upper hand over Namibia due to its sheer economic size, with Namibia offering little commercial threat to industries next door.

But the arrival of green hydrogen - labelled by many as the energy of the future - could ignite rivalry between the two as each looks to cement its place as a dominant player in the budding industry.

Huge promises

Both countries are scrambling for the same pool of experts and funders of the multibillion-dollar industry, with the two also seemingly continuing to make huge promises to their people as to what benefits the green hydrogen industry will bring.

For its part, Namibia is targeting production of 10 to 12 million tonnes per annum, while its Hyphen Hydrogen Energy flagship in the Tsau //Khaeb National Park has set a production target of 300 000 tonnes per year.

Across the Orange River, South Africa aims to produce 500 000 tonnes per annum of green hydrogen by 2030 while it ramps up production in the lead to 2040.

During the ramp-up phase, Namibia and South Africa expect to create 15 000 and 20 000 jobs respectively.

Collaborative efforts

During his visit to Namibia last week for the third session of the Bi-National Commission, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa called for a more collaborative approach between the two countries when it comes to green hydrogen, singling it out as a potential area for partnership.

“South Africa is in the process of considering and finalising a green hydrogen commercialisation strategy that seeks to unlock the opportunity for green hydrogen to strengthen our industrialisation efforts.

“Namibia too is implementing its green hydrogen strategy. We can either go it alone, or we can position this part of the west coast of the African continent as a key green hydrogen region,” he said.

He added: “We have a number of strengths we can draw on, from abundant wind and solar resources to platinum. This means we can be a major exporter of green hydrogen”.

Ramaphosa wants Namibia, Angola and South Africa to put forward a southern African green hydrogen value-proposition aimed at providing green hydrogen to the rest of the world.

Namibia’s green hydrogen commissioner James Mnyupe echoed Ramaphosa’s sentiments, saying “there is little to be worried about”.

“Namibia is not trying to compete with South Africa, but rather collaborate intently. Namibia is likely to play the role of supplier of excess electrons and molecules to South Africa over the long-term. South Africa’s industrial base is larger and needs more clean energy to de-carbonise. Namibia, on the other hand, would look to use its excess clean energies to attract new industries to its shores,” he said of efforts to get the green hydrogen industries out of the starting blocks.

“There is a balanced approach that requires strategic joining between the two interdependent economies that president Ramaphosa acknowledges are ‘joined at the hip’,” he added.

Lack of planning

International relations expert Dr Marius Kudumo said despite public utterances by the heads of state of both countries that Namibia and South Africa would seek to collaborate, at the end of the day, each country would look to see how it could derive maximum benefit.

“States are about interests that they must pursue. Everyone is positioning themselves to see how they will benefit. You cannot talk about collaboration, you must know that Namibia imports energy sources from other countries. If Namibia becomes energy self-sufficient, South Africa loses,” he said.

Kudumo also lamented the lack of planning to account for investments in the green hydrogen space, saying there was no clear idea how government would deploy capital it received to develop these industries.

“How will we use these resources for development of the country? We have not seen that plan of how we will use these resources to improve the lives of our people,” he said.

Commenting on the issue of the transparency regarding green hydrogen, Kudumo said government lacked a clear communication strategy, leaving room for citizens to doubt the ambitious project.

“There needs to be a clear communication strategy without disclosing too much detail. Otherwise, people will conclude that it is a very secretive project.”

Leveraging advantages

Economic Association of Namibia (EAN) director Cons Karamata said Namibia's smaller economy - relative to South Africa - does present some challenges, but it also offers opportunities for specialisation, collaboration and strategic positioning on the global green hydrogen market.

“Namibia's smaller domestic market may encourage us to focus on exporting green hydrogen, leveraging its strategic location along the coastline. Exporting to regions with high demand, such as Europe, could be a significant advantage.

“In doing this, Namibia should leverage its unique advantages, such as abundant sunshine resources and a strategic location, to carve out its place in the green hydrogen industry,” Karamata said.