‘Inaccurate' census data risks govt planning
NSA slammed for 'unreliable' data
Pressure is mounting on the NSA, whose census data has generated more questions than answers about the true state of Namibian demographics.
A growing number of people have slammed the Namibia Statistics Agency’s (NSA) 2023 Population and Housing Census Report as inaccurate, unreliable and poorly executed – warning that this could hinder development planning and the formulation of policies meant to address the country’s raft of challenges.
Member of parliament in the National Council Paulus Mbangu is among the latest critics to add his voice to the widespread discontent over the quality of the report.
The alleged lack of transparency in the report, amid allegations that astronomical unemployment figures were deliberately omitted to aid the ruling Swapo Party in this month’s election, has also infuriated the public.
Mbangu suggested that the lack of transparency could distort critical public policies and further cement the narrative that government only responds to public concerns when elections are near.
Alleged discrepancies
In a speech delivered in parliament on Wednesday, Mbangu highlighted alleged inaccurate population data, including population figures of the VaMbunza group in the two Kavango regions and other regional populations that appear inaccurate.
“Categories like ‘Not Elsewhere Specified (NEC)’ – data that serves as a catch-all for information that does not fit into a more specific classification – contains large numbers of people, suggesting data collection issues," he said.
“To put the Mbunza population at 5 000 is so untrue that even a child can recognise it. All colonial and past statistics show that the VaMbunza population was comparably close to that of the VaGciriku. Everything looks inaccurate in this latest data,” Mbangu, a councillor for Rundu Rural constituency, claimed.
“In Kavango East and West, the ‘VaKavango NEC’ grouping stands out as another example of such problematic classifications. With over 81 000 people who reportedly did not disclose their dialect, this category ends up larger than established communities like the VaMbunza, VaGciriku, HaMbukushu, VaSambyu and Nyembas. Are we really to believe that such a large population provided only vague answers, or does this reflect issues in the data collection process itself?”
“Further issues arise in the report’s handling of European origin. People of European descent are simply labeled ‘white’ without further distinction, lumping together Germans, Afrikaners, Portuguese, Spanish and others into a single vague category. This broad categorisation glosses over important distinctions that are relevant both socially and culturally,” Mbangu argued.
Explain methods
Political commentator Ndumba Kamwanyah is also of the opinion that NSA messed up the census exercise.
"You cannot categorise the OvaHerero with Rukwangali and other ethnic groups; they should be grouped by dialects within their respective tribes," he stated.
Kamwanyah explained that census reports on the VaMbunza people, dating back to independence, indicated a growing population.
He said Kapako, a constituency within the Mbunza area, reflected higher numbers. "How is that possible? Mbunza [is found] in many constituencies."
Kamwanyah suggested that the enumerators lacked the competence needed to conduct the census exercise accurately.
If there are no inaccuracies, Kamwanyah – himself a researcher – challenged NSA to explain its methods of data collection.
"The entire purpose of collecting census data is to plan for national development. How can development be credible if the data it’s based on isn’t reliable"? he pointed out.
Threat of legal action
Meanwhile, the Economic Policy Research Association (EPRA) yesterday charged that the decision by the NSA to withhold data from the census report about unemployment levels, which historically has always been included in this report, is a grave and clear breach of existing laws.
“Given the timing of this withholding, the dissemination of statistics is clearly a breach of political impartiality and an intentional delay in the release thereof for the same reasons,” EPRA’s Eben de Klerk wrote.
The association wrote a letter of complaint yesterday, addressed to statistician general Alex Shimuafeni, NSA board chairperson Salomo Hei and director general of the National Planning Commission Obeth Kandjoze.
In the letter, EPRA asked Kandjoze to instruct the NSA to release the unemployment data within 10 days. “Should there be no compliance within this timeframe, we reserve the right to, without further notice, approach the High Court for relief, as this is clearly a matter of public interest,” said the association.
Poverty index
Both Mbangu and Kamwanyah criticised the report’s lack of a poverty index, arguing that this key omission limits its usefulness for policy planning, especially when it comes to allocating resources to economically disadvantaged areas.
The 2021 Namibian Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) report found that the average intensity of poverty in Namibia is 44.0%, indicating that, on average, people living in poverty experience 44.0% of the weighted deprivations measured.
Member of parliament in the National Council Paulus Mbangu is among the latest critics to add his voice to the widespread discontent over the quality of the report.
The alleged lack of transparency in the report, amid allegations that astronomical unemployment figures were deliberately omitted to aid the ruling Swapo Party in this month’s election, has also infuriated the public.
Mbangu suggested that the lack of transparency could distort critical public policies and further cement the narrative that government only responds to public concerns when elections are near.
Alleged discrepancies
In a speech delivered in parliament on Wednesday, Mbangu highlighted alleged inaccurate population data, including population figures of the VaMbunza group in the two Kavango regions and other regional populations that appear inaccurate.
“Categories like ‘Not Elsewhere Specified (NEC)’ – data that serves as a catch-all for information that does not fit into a more specific classification – contains large numbers of people, suggesting data collection issues," he said.
“To put the Mbunza population at 5 000 is so untrue that even a child can recognise it. All colonial and past statistics show that the VaMbunza population was comparably close to that of the VaGciriku. Everything looks inaccurate in this latest data,” Mbangu, a councillor for Rundu Rural constituency, claimed.
“In Kavango East and West, the ‘VaKavango NEC’ grouping stands out as another example of such problematic classifications. With over 81 000 people who reportedly did not disclose their dialect, this category ends up larger than established communities like the VaMbunza, VaGciriku, HaMbukushu, VaSambyu and Nyembas. Are we really to believe that such a large population provided only vague answers, or does this reflect issues in the data collection process itself?”
“Further issues arise in the report’s handling of European origin. People of European descent are simply labeled ‘white’ without further distinction, lumping together Germans, Afrikaners, Portuguese, Spanish and others into a single vague category. This broad categorisation glosses over important distinctions that are relevant both socially and culturally,” Mbangu argued.
Explain methods
Political commentator Ndumba Kamwanyah is also of the opinion that NSA messed up the census exercise.
"You cannot categorise the OvaHerero with Rukwangali and other ethnic groups; they should be grouped by dialects within their respective tribes," he stated.
Kamwanyah explained that census reports on the VaMbunza people, dating back to independence, indicated a growing population.
He said Kapako, a constituency within the Mbunza area, reflected higher numbers. "How is that possible? Mbunza [is found] in many constituencies."
Kamwanyah suggested that the enumerators lacked the competence needed to conduct the census exercise accurately.
If there are no inaccuracies, Kamwanyah – himself a researcher – challenged NSA to explain its methods of data collection.
"The entire purpose of collecting census data is to plan for national development. How can development be credible if the data it’s based on isn’t reliable"? he pointed out.
Threat of legal action
Meanwhile, the Economic Policy Research Association (EPRA) yesterday charged that the decision by the NSA to withhold data from the census report about unemployment levels, which historically has always been included in this report, is a grave and clear breach of existing laws.
“Given the timing of this withholding, the dissemination of statistics is clearly a breach of political impartiality and an intentional delay in the release thereof for the same reasons,” EPRA’s Eben de Klerk wrote.
The association wrote a letter of complaint yesterday, addressed to statistician general Alex Shimuafeni, NSA board chairperson Salomo Hei and director general of the National Planning Commission Obeth Kandjoze.
In the letter, EPRA asked Kandjoze to instruct the NSA to release the unemployment data within 10 days. “Should there be no compliance within this timeframe, we reserve the right to, without further notice, approach the High Court for relief, as this is clearly a matter of public interest,” said the association.
Poverty index
Both Mbangu and Kamwanyah criticised the report’s lack of a poverty index, arguing that this key omission limits its usefulness for policy planning, especially when it comes to allocating resources to economically disadvantaged areas.
The 2021 Namibian Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) report found that the average intensity of poverty in Namibia is 44.0%, indicating that, on average, people living in poverty experience 44.0% of the weighted deprivations measured.
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