Kavango: The decisive swing in Namibia’s political arena

As Namibia heads into the national and presidential elections, the two Kavango regions have emerged as critical swing areas that could significantly influence the outcome. Historically, these regions have been pivotal in determining the success of the Swapo party, which has long prided itself on being the party of the people. However, the current political climate suggests that Swapo’s dominance in the two regions is under serious threat, and the party is acutely aware of this. Their renewed focus on the Kavango regions underscores their strategic importance in the electoral map, drawing parallels to the crucial role these regions played in the 1989 elections.

In the seminal 1989 elections, Swapo secured 57% of the vote, largely due to the support from Kavango, which aligned with the former Owamboland. This alliance was instrumental in Swapo’s victory, showcasing the power and influence of the Kavango vote. Fast forward to today, and the stakes are equally high. If Swapo's support base diminishes in these two regions, the party risks dropping below the 50% threshold, a scenario that would be catastrophic for a party that styles itself as the people's champion.

Recognising this, Swapo has been dispatching its top leaders to the Kavango regions, hoping to rekindle the support that has waned over the years. This tactical manoeuvre is an attempt to replicate the 1989 success, aiming to secure a decisive victory by ensuring Kavango's allegiance. However, this renewed attention raises critical questions about the Swapo-led government’s track record in these regions. Despite their electoral significance, the Kavango regions have consistently been marginalised in terms of leadership positions and national development initiatives.

The people of Kavango have long felt sidelined, a sentiment that has only grown with time. The lack of substantial representation in key government roles and the slow pace of developmental projects have fostered a sense of neglect. This marginalisation is not just a political oversight but a glaring socio-economic disparity that has fuelled discontent among the residents, especially the youth. After elections, the Kavango people often become an afterthought, their contributions forgotten until the next electoral cycle.

Shifting political landscape

The recent attempts by the Swapo-led government to court the Kavango people with groundbreaking ceremonies and opening clinics promised 12 years ago are seen as disingenuous and too little, too late. The timing of these efforts, coinciding with the fear of dropping below a majority, has not gone unnoticed by the electorate. This cycle of neglect and temporary appeasement is becoming increasingly untenable. The cracks in Swapo’s support base in Kavango are widening, as evidenced by the rise of new political movements, independent candidates and vocal opposition groups. Paulus Mbangu’s capture of Rundu Rural in 2020 and the bold stance of Kafu kaNamibia and the Kukukwetjako WhatsApp forum against Swapo's marginalisation policies are clear indicators of a shifting political landscape in the two regions. These developments signal a growing frustration among the Kavango electorate, who are no longer willing to accept the status quo.

The opposition parties have a unique opportunity to capitalise on this dissatisfaction. To prevent a repeat of the 1989 elections, where Swapo’s strategic alignment with Kavango regions secured a sweeping victory, opposition parties must focus their efforts on these critical areas. Engaging with the Kavango electorate, addressing their grievances, and presenting a viable alternative to the Swapo-led government’s track record of marginalisation could turn the tide.

Two-fold challenge

For Swapo, the challenge is twofold: they must not only secure votes but also rebuild trust. The party’s future hinges on its ability to genuinely address the concerns of the Kavango people, moving beyond mere electoral promises to concrete actions that foster development and inclusivity. This entails ensuring significant representation of Kavango leaders in government positions and implementing robust development projects that directly benefit the regions.

The upcoming elections are poised to be a litmus test for Swapo's enduring legacy and its claims of being the party of the people. The Kavango regions, with their historical significance and current discontent, are the battleground where this legacy will be contested. Both Swapo and the opposition must recognise that the Kavango vote is not just a means to an electoral end but a call for genuine engagement and equitable development.

In conclusion, the two Kavango regions are the linchpin in Namibia’s electoral landscape. Their support can make or break Swapo’s quest to maintain a majority. As the political campaigns intensify, the focus on Kavango underscores its pivotal role in shaping the future of Namibia’s democracy. The question remains: will the Swapo party succeed in rekindling its support, or will the opposition manage to turn the tide? The answer lies in the hands of the Kavango electorate, whose voices are louder and more critical than ever before.