Netumbo leading, Swapo gasping for 50% advantage

Swapo hovered just above 40% in early parliamentary election results received from individual polling stations by late yesterday, while its presidential candidate Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah was just below the all-important 50% mark in an election marked by controversy and threats of physical harm among opponents.

Late yesterday, Aranos became the first constituency to announce results from all its polling stations, with voters giving Swapo 37%, the highest tally for a single party, but leaving a massive 63% in the hands of 20 opposition parties.

In the presidential vote, Nandi-Ndaitwah secured 38% of the overall vote, followed by Landless People’s Movement (LPM) leader Bernadus Swartbooi at 28%.

The Aranos result is reminiscent of Swapo’s overall performance in the southern regions, which it lost to LPM in the 2019 and 2020 elections.

Erongo remains predictable

In the Erongo Region, both Swapo and Nandi-Ndaitwah were trailing in polling station results for Walvis Bay and Swakopmund, although the final results had not been released by the time of going to print. Early indications suggest that Independent Patriots for Change (IPC), which took control of the two towns in the 2020 local authority and regional council elections, was on course to retain them again in this election.

However, in Arandis, the party was leading at some major polling stations, but also losing at others.

At the NG Kerk polling station, Swapo could only muster third place with 97 out of 720 votes cast, behind IPC at 323 votes and Republican Party with 178.

But at another polling station in Arandis, officially coded FO 20087, where 672 people voted, Swapo won 251 votes, compared to IPC’s 135.

Courting the northern vote

Early indications also suggest a comfortable – or even crushing – victory for Swapo in the Omusati, Oshana, Oshikoto and Nandi-Ndaitwah’s native Ohangwena Region. The ruling party is also performing impressively in the Kavango West and Kavango East regions, as well as Zambezi, if early results are anything to go by.

Otjozondjupa Region, which has become a Swapo stronghold in recent years, produced mixed early results for the ruling party.

The situation in Otjozondjupa was similar to that of Aranos, where the party is securing more votes than other parties but failing to attain an overall majority.

Swapo struggles with majority vote

Swapo needs to win at least 51% of the nationwide parliamentary election in order to control the National Assembly. Alternatively, the party might be forced to seek an alliance partner to dominate parliament, or risk sitting on the opposition benches if other parties form a coalition to keep Swapo at arm’s length.

In the event that Swapo does not retain its parliamentary majority in the National Assembly, political scientist Rui Tyitende said the party might move fast to snap up one of the smaller opposition parties as its coalition partner.

"One of the ways to do so would be to offer a non-strategic ministerial position to the leader of that party in order to entice them to form part of the coalition," Tyitende said Wednesday on Network TV.

"The opposition is too fragmented in this election, and this might derail any chance of them to work together in order to keep Swapo in the minority. This election is more about 2029, where you expect Swapo to face even a bigger challenge – but only if the opposition is united to, for example, back one presidential candidate,’ he added.

Two-thirds majority dream fading

Swapo went into this election with the singular aim of retaining the two-thirds majority it lost in the 2019 election. Early results did not inspire confidence as far as reaching that dream is concerned, although this could change quickly between today and the day of the final results announcement.

Swapo’s votes in the 2019 general election dropped to 65%, down from 80% garnered in 2014. Its candidate, late president Hage Geingob, received 56.3% of the votes, a significant drop from the 87% he received in 2014.

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